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, by Peter Schwartz
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Product details
File Size: 2589 KB
Print Length: 290 pages
Page Numbers Source ISBN: 0385267320
Publisher: Crown Business; Reprint edition (February 8, 2012)
Publication Date: February 8, 2012
Sold by: Amazon Digital Services LLC
Language: English
ASIN: B006YYUPN8
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I sat down with the intent of detailed and thorough reading, but by the second chapter I was accelerating through, skimming quickly and finding the same discursive, repetitive and not very original ideas. I wanted to like it given that scenario planning is something of a preoccupation with me, and I warmed to the avuncular style, but I couldn't help but shake the image of The Graduate ("plastics!").Basically: read a lot from disparate sources, confront biases, constrain your futures to a manageable number.Paradoxically, the unique challenge of our age is not a lack of information but, with the constraints on resources and time, knowing what to ignore (like this book).
The Art of the Long View by Peter Schwartz is mainly a training guide for scenario planning. It does not give step-by-step instructions without the reader having to go through the whole book. The book is an easy read but starts out in the first chapter or two seeming like an info commercial trying to set the foundation of the product right before the viewer (or reader) changes the channel. This foundation of Schwartz’ background and case studies, particularly in the oil industry, are referenced throughout the rest of the book and are necessary before the reader really starts getting into it. Schwartz did a great job in his case study examples explaining how one has to pull the past historical data of events for expectation of what could happen on the three scenario paths that can be taken. The reason for stating “could happen†is that Schwartz made it clear to the reader that scenario planning is not a prediction of the future but merely a tool to use to drive your decisions and prepare for what could happen from the worst extreme to the best extreme outcome. What are the big issues and how does one go about using filters to overcome obstacles for what’s important? These are skills that have to be learned by some but may be a natural instinct by others. Schwartz also mentions that one should narrow the scenarios’ to no more than three as they may overlap and to write the scenarios out as if you were writing a book. He also mentioned that the “driving forces, predetermined elements, and critical uncertainties†must be looked at in order to give “structure to our exploration of the futureâ€. Among the driving forces any event of “society, technology, economy, politics, and environment†can change the course of the future journey. What I liked mostly about the book is how Schwartz went back in time with the readers to the 1960 – 1990’s (my era) and explained the events and how they effected other events socially, politically, economically, and even the drive on the environmental issues. He really did a great job connecting some of the dot’s that drove our economics at the time. It was educational and the younger adults could benefit from this history. His analysis on the teenagers, particularly the baby boomers, was right on target. The baby boomers made major social changes and there are the “global teenagers†that will also make an impact but maybe not as big economically since some of those groups are from poorer countries. (I think I will check into some stocks in the medical industry and hopefully get out in time before so many hospitals and medical facilities are no longer needed as the baby boomers grow older… Schwartz book just makes me think is all…) The last item in my review is the technology scenarios mentioned in the book. One has to continually remind themselves when the book was originally written; in 1990. I don’t believe there were too many updates, if any, to the 1996 books printed. Schwartz made some pretty good scenarios in the book regarding the virtual world but maybe one network overlooked is the wireless market which has really played a large part in technological advances since the book was written. Perhaps Schwartz should write a second part called, “The Art of the Longview: The Past 25 Years and Planning for the Infinite Futureâ€. The history for his next scenario would cover the dot.com era, events on 9/11 and the aftermath, at least two major hurricanes, iPhone and Smart phone market, the drive of converting analog to digital, the first black president, impact to the Japan tsunami, the capture of Saddam Hussien and Bin Laden, affordable healthcare, new regulations, gun control, Washington and Colorado passing sale of marijuana, our borders, how the Cowboy’s haven’t won but one playoff game since the mid-90’s (JK), etc…. etc…, etc… There is a lot to write about for Schwartz that has happened in the past 25 years along with comparing his scenarios’ giving new ones.
I belief that I possess a strong and reliable gut-feel or instinct. I also have a good knack for organising and quantifying information to help me in the process of decision making. Together these factors which have helped me through many decisions, from moderately difficult to life changing decisions, such as immigration.But Peter Schwartz's book takes planning for the future to a much higher level. Subtitled "Planning for the future in an uncertain world", in "The art of the long view" Schwartz illustrates his own successful recipe for practical futurism.He outlines a "scenario" approach for developing a strategic vision. This approach involves developing 2 - 4 varying scenarios. The approach is based upon a series of steps for developing each scenario, preparing for the likelihood each scenario, and recognising early on which one (or more than one) scenario is actually eventuating, so that appropriate steps can be taken.Although the proposed scenarios are to be presented in a narrative form (which may make some people uncomfortable), the "Long View" approach is quite methodical (though it could perhaps have been presented in a more organised fashion). Apart from that, the approach holds much advantage. I expected a full-on business book glorifying globalisation, knowing that Schwartz had been involved with several multi-nationals like the Royal Dutch Shell Oil Company. I was therefore pleasantly surprised with Schwartz's environmental leanings and his inclusion of the ecological impacts of decisions in scenarios.Taking into account the success rate of teams in which Schwartz has been involved with in the past, the scenario developing strategy definitely seems to me to have much merit. (It would be interesting to see how his predictions for 2005 turns out - in 3 years time). Now if we could only get politicians to read this book and look past their re-election windows. Highly recommended.
This is a must read for those interested in strategic thinking, strategic visioning, and in moving beyond biases and assumptions to imagine the future. Schwartz noted, "I wrote this book [to show individuals] how to begin using a method for investigating important decisions" (p. xiii). He continued to note that the point isn't to pick one future but instead to " make strategic decisions that will be sound for all plausible futures. . . . Scenario planning is about making choices today with an understanding of how they might turn out" (pp. xiv, 4). Such an important discussion and aspect of imagining new possibilities! In an appendix Schwartz identifies the steps to developing scenarios.
A fine read on the foundations and methods of scenario planning. I learned a great deal about the why of this type of planning, not just the how. It was a bit surrealistic, since it was published before Sept. 11, 2001. Some of the possible futures of U.S. society suggested in the book, in hindsight, appeared naive or quaint. Yet, even then, it was instructive reading, because it made for a great example of how unforeseen events actually do change the scenario planning process in real ways. I enjoyed the book, evidenced by the fact that I started and finished it while on a Caribbean cruise. It kept my attention even then.
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